Should Jeffco Leaders Be Blamed for Spending More than $20 Million of Bond Funds on the 16 Schools They’re Closing?
During the meetings the Jefferson County Board of Education held with sixteen elementary schools that had been identified for closure, one angry question came up again and again: “If the district knew it was going to close our schools, why did you spend millions of bond funds upgrading it?”
The district has studiously avoided directly answering this question. Did this represent a gross management and governance failure, or was the fall in enrollment at these schools a “black swan” that could not have been foreseen?
A fair analysis begins with a look at the evidence that was available to Jeffco management and the Board of Education at various points in time.
Jeffco’s 2014/2015 “Facilities Condition Assessment” Report found that:
12 of 17 district-run high schools were operating at less than 80% capacity (the threshold many districts used to signify “low utilization), and 5 were operating at less than 65%
· 14 of 19 middle schools were operating at less than 80% capacity, and 7 were at less than 65%.
· 12 of 92 elementary schools (which housed students in kindergarten through sixth grade) were operating at less than 80%, and 2 at less than 65%.
In response to this, members of the Republican majority that then controlled the Jeffco Board of Education suggested that charter schools be encouraged to co-locate in underutilized middle schools, as had been done in Denver.
This was opposed the Democratic minority, which regained control of the Board in November 2015.
In 2016, the Jeffco Board of Education rejected the district’s proposal to consolidate 10 underutilized or old elementary schools into five new schools. Instead, it proposed a $568 million bond issue for school improvements and to build new schools. It was soundly defeated by a 54% to 46% margin.
The 2017/2018 Facility Condition Assessment Report found that:
- 6 of 17 district-run high schools were operating at less than 80% capacity, and 2 were operating at less than 65%
- 2 newly created 7/12 schools (Alameda and Jefferson) were operating at less than 80% of capacity
- 12 middle schools were operating at less than 80% capacity, and 5 were at less than 65%
- 26 elementary schools were operating at less than 80%, and 8 at less than 65%.
In 2017, the district proposed closing five elementary schools.
After public outcry, only one, Pleasant View, was closed, and its students sent to Shelton and Welchester elementary schools. Unfortunately, while Pleasant View was a Title 1 school with a high percentage of at-risk students, that was not true of either Shelton or Welchester. But the district did not make up the Title 1 funding loss by increasing either Shelton or Welchester’s budget.
After this painful experience, Superintendent Jason Glass unilaterally imposed a two-year moratorium on further school closings. At the same time, the Board of Education requested that Glass prepare a new District-Wide Facilities Master Plan, and deliver it to the Board.
This was never done — and the Board never complained.
Instead, to reduce middle school underutilization, the district proposed, and the Board approved, moving sixth graders out of elementary schools and into middle schools, despite research that this could have negative impacts on their student achievement results.
The district’s 2017/2018 Enrollment Projections Report found that over the previous five years, Jeffco’s district-operated neighborhood schools had lost 2,174 students. Over the next five years, the report forecast a further decline of 1,773 students.
As you can see below, by 2018 it was very clear that enrollment losses in Jeffco’s neighborhood schools had been ongoing since 2012, and were accelerating.
The 2018/2019 Facility Condition Assessment Report found that:
- 9 of 17 district-run high schools were operating at less than 80% capacity, and 2 were operating at less than 65%
- Both 7/12 schools (Alameda and Jefferson) were operating at less than 80% of capacity
- 8 middle schools were operating at less than 80% capacity
- Following the move of 6th grade to middle school, 45 elementary schools were operating at less than 80%, and 20 at less than 65%.
The 2018/2019 Enrollment Projections Report showed that over the previous five years, Jeffco’s neighborhood schools had lost 3,615 students. Yet over the next five years, they were projected to lose only 1,171.
Despite evidence of continued enrollment declines and worsening overcapacity, and even without a Facilities Master Plan to guide the proposed Capital Improvement Program, in 2018 Jeffco district management recommended, and on a 5–0 vote the Board of Education approved, putting a $567 million bond issue on the November 2018 ballot that included new investments in all district-run schools, along with a 10% allocation to charter schools.
In October 2018, all of Colorado Community Media’s Jeffco newspapers (e.g., the Arvada Press, Golden Transcript, Jeffco Transcript) ran this editorial endorsement:
“We commend the district for listening to criticism from its failed bond attempt in 2016, which cited a lack of clarity in how the money would be used. This time, the district has prepared a detailed booklet and website of exactly where the money will go at each school… We also applaud the district’s commitment to transparency: A citizens financial oversight committee and independent audit of expenditures will make sure money from the measures is spent as intended.”
The district’s commitment to spend bond funds in every school was part of its strategy to pass the bond issue in the face of opposition that noted extent of low capacity utilization and declining enrollment in many district-run schools.
The proposed bond issue only passed by a scant 1,286 votes — less than 1/2 of 1% of the total votes cast.
The 2019/2020 Facility Condition Assessment Report should have rung alarm bells for district management, the Capital Asset Advisory Committee, and the Board of Education about the wisdom of continuing to invest bond funds in schools with declining enrollment and worsening overcapacity.
- 9 of 17 district-run high schools were operating at less than 80% capacity, and 2 were operating at less than 65%
- Both 7/12 schools (Alameda and Jefferson) were operating at less than 80% of capacity
- 8 middle schools were operating at less than 80% capacity
- Despite the move of 6th grade to middle school, 49 elementary schools were now operating at less than 80%, and 28 at less than 65% — a sharp increase over the previous year’s report.
The Projected Enrollment Report also should have rung alarm bells:
- Over the next five years, district staff projected a further decline of 1,171 students in Jeffco’s neighborhood schools.
- Much more worrisome was evidence of large and worsening errors in Jeffco’s five year enrollment projections.
- Jeffco’s 2014 five-year enrollment projection had overestimated enrollment in district run schools by 4,170 students.
- Jeffco’s 2015 five-year enrollment projection had overestimated enrollment in district run schools by 9,020 students.
But no alarm bells were sounded, and Jeffco continued to invest millions in district-run neighborhood schools.
To conclude, let’s go back to our original question:
Does the district’s decision to spend millions on 16 elementary schools that will be closed (and more schools that will almost certainly be closed next year) represent a gross failure of Jeffco’s management and governance, or was the fall in enrollment at these schools a “black swan” that could not have been foreseen?
The evidence leaves no room for argument.
But despite this, nothing has been done in Jeffco.
Millions of dollars continue to be spent on schools that will almost certainly be closed in next year’s round of consolidations, and none of the Moss Adams report’s recommendations for management and governance improvements have been implemented.
In Jeffco Schools, business as usual continues, and gross management and governance failures in the nation’s 39th largest school district, a $1.9 billion organization, remain unaddressed.
Tom Coyne is an executive at Britten Coyne Partners, and a former member of Jefferson County School District Accountability Committee. For more than 20 years, he has invested all his volunteer time in K-12 performance improvement, in New England, Alberta, and Colorado. He is married to Jeffco Public Schools Board Director Susan Miller. The opinions in this column Coyne’s alone.
